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'X' always wins - or does it?
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cliffwiggs
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 9:20 am GMT    Post subject: 'X' always wins - or does it? Reply with quote

I'm starting this thread because my goal is to make sure that no single daemon design wins more than 50% against every (most) designs.

I know there is a tendency that what beats you is 'broken', so this thread is a place to discuss that in a statistical way.

That being said, I'm sure that it'll be possible to make a 'worst' daemon, some body parts are better suited as support units and not as primary. For Example: if you make an all brain daemon and then complain you can't win...

There are over 48,000 purebred daemons that can be made out of just 13 body parts. Not all of them can be 'winners'. The exact number of possible daemons is a topic for another thread.

The last thing I wanted to mention here is some stats about rolling 13 3-sided dice. Through the magic of computers, I can test roll 13 dice , 10 million times in under a minute. Here are the odds of getting a specific face on 'X' of 13 dice.


Favorable Diceexact %NoMoreThan%Atleast%
00.51308%0.51308%100%
13.33754%3.85062%99.48692%
210.03194%13.88256%96.14938%
318.35388%32.23644%86.11744%
422.94799%55.18443%67.76356%
520.68933%75.87376%44.81557%
613.77886%89.65262%24.12624%
76.88733%96.53995%10.34738%
82.57574%99.11569%3.46005%
90.7192%99.83489%0.88431%
100.14442%99.97931%0.16511%
110.01897%99.99828%0.02069%
120.00166%99.99994%0.00172%
130.00006%100%0.00006%
[/table]

Lots of numbers what do they mean? Suppose I have an all lung monster. Each 'Lung' gives me two minuses, thus if I can get 7 lungs in one roll, you have 14 minuses and I would win. atleast 7 favorable out of 13 is the 8th row down and the last column. So that would only happen 10% of the time.

Personally, I would not design a daemon that only won 10% of the games I played in. Thus I would not consider that a broken daemon. would you?
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 9:44 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

But with an all lung demon, it's a little more complex. Since the other two sides are plus and minus, if a third of them (i.e. 4) come up lungs, and a third of them come up minus, you have 12 minuses at the other player. So one more than the average (since it's somewhere between 4 and 5) is all you need to win. So you need to extend your model to show all that as well.

Next question is: what is threshold for broken? 50%? 40%? I'd say that if a daemon could win 50% or more of the time on the first turn, it's broken. But anything that could win more than 40% is going to get called broken by many.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:07 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is a generic table for any 'ICON'. So you could say the same for Stingers, etc. that math is the same.

chuckpint wrote:
But with an all lung demon, it's a little more complex. Since the other two sides are plus and minus,
I don't have a Lung die here at work, so I'm just going off your site, but it shows a Lung daemon as having two pluses. not a minus... If it has a minus that would change everything...

Also, it is more complicated because it could also mean that if you allow a game to go ten turns,then they are likely to get the 'magic' roll anyway. However I would hope you can kill a daemon which produces no saves in less than that anyway, even if it is generating lots of recovering pluses



If you want an actual full game of say... All lungs vs all Pincer. I have a massive VBA script I'm still debugging.

Quote:

Next question is: what is threshold for broken? 50%? 40%? I'd say that if a daemon could win 50% or more of the time on the first turn, it's broken. But anything that could win more than 40% is going to get called broken by many.
That is an excellent question. My thought is that if it loses 50% of the time to ANY build (entire game, not just first turn), then its okay. If you have to make a specific defense to win 50% that doesn't do well against anything else, then it indicates a problem.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:22 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of course, any X% chance first-turn victory scenarios as presented (from a full daemon) are going to be a subset of those instances in which one's foe has generated zero minuses during the initiative roll.

I'm not sure what popularity to assign each die so as to create an appropriately weighted baseline for comparison, but given a daemon composed of 1-each of the thirteen dice listed in the rules so far (assuming I'm reading the rules right) the average first-turn minus an acting player will suffer is 3.33. Since a) one cannot suffer a partial result, and b) we are talking about the losing initiative roll, we may safely round down to a 3, which will be the result about 24.39% of the time (65.48% of results will be from 2-4). Only 1.95% of the initiative rolls of this theoretical daemon would result in zero minuses and the potential for the first-turn loss at the X rate.

Would it be reasonable to assess a threshold of concern for "broken" given expected penalties (-3 or whatever is more accurate), accepting that one in a hundred games [against a theoretical average foe] being a washout is probably not going to be too upsetting?
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:51 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

AC wrote:

Would it be reasonable to assess a threshold of concern for "broken" given expected penalties (-3 or whatever is more accurate), accepting that one in a hundred games [against a theoretical average foe] being a washout is probably not going to be too upsetting?


note sure I understand... are you saying that any more than 1 in a hundred games should be winnable on the first turn should be considered broken?
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 11:05 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I need to double-check my website. I thought a lung had a plus and a minus. I'll post if there are changes.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 11:31 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

chuckpint wrote:
I need to double-check my website. I thought a lung had a plus and a minus. I'll post if there are changes.
I'll go through my physical dice as well.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 12:05 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

cliffwiggs wrote:
note sure I understand... are you saying that any more than 1 in a hundred games should be winnable on the first turn should be considered broken?


No, I was saying that if Daemon A wins 50% of the time that the opponent rolls zero minuses during initiative, then it's winning on the first turn only 1% of the time (against an average daemon), which isn't as alarming as the initial 50% would seem to be. I moved the clauses around a few times in the sentence and never got it quite satisfactorily clear. I meant that any estimation of "broken" needs to factor in first turn penalties, and that 1/100 odds of winning first turn aren't really a big deal (meaning I figure the threshold for what's considered "broken" to be a lot higher).

Incidentally, the icons/faces I was using for my estimation were from a graphic that I found on-line, which shows Lung having two pluses. I have no way to confirm its accuracy. (Brain, Eye, and Tentacle are the only +/- according to this chart.) An image caption on the same site suggested that there were "20 known misprints."
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:10 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

AC wrote:
An image caption on the same site suggested that there were "20 known misprints."
Yes, there are some which are known to exist. No one is able to explain how or when they were produced.

Of the misprints I have seen, I would not choose to use them over a normal body part.

I don't have exact numbers on how prevalent they are, but based on how many I have seen. They are rare enough that my plan is to just ignore them in the rulebook and tournament rules. Only the collectors will care. If they even manage to find their way into our starters.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 2:42 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lungs have two pluses. There, now we can move on.


AC wrote:
An image caption on the same site suggested that there were "20 known misprints."

That website being BoardGameGeek, and that caption written by myself. There may possibly be more (wouldn't surprise me).
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 2:44 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

piMaster wrote:
Lungs have two pluses. There, now we can move on.
You know Chuck won't be happy until he verifies it himself. I know I wouldn't.

I really didn't expect this thread to have this much activity (yet), the purpose was just to introduce the idea of what a broken build is and to give some status on how frequent you might be able to get your 'magic' roll for any given build.

i.e. once items are introduced, what is the frequency of a tentacle monster rolling more tentacles than you have body parts.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:16 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ok, I posted as a sticky a table of all the body parts and the sides on each. Yes I verified each one against real dice.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2013 8:49 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

chuckpint wrote:
Ok, I posted as a sticky a table of all the body parts and the sides on each. Yes I verified each one against real dice.
I verified that my DB is correct against your list. So we are good there.

I might take a few moments to update your list with the expected results per die. I don't think that anything is over 0.66 average, but need to verify.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:40 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

cliffwiggs wrote:

I might take a few moments to update your list with the expected results per die. I don't think that anything is over 0.66 average, but need to verify.
In looking at this I decided not too. Its pretty easy to see that most dice have either 0, 1/3 or 2/3 average results per die for all result types.

The other body parts that are higher are leg and tail which are 1 average stun (due to the two stun faces).

so back to the massive script...
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:52 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Note: Since these games are generally so quick (quicker than most other games). I recommend that in a tournament setting you play every round as two out of three. That will greatly reduce the 'magic' roll from knocking a good player out in a single elimination format and will discourage that type of build.

Smile
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2013 1:29 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

cliffwiggs wrote:
Note: Since these games are generally so quick (quicker than most other games). I recommend that in a tournament setting you play every round as two out of three. That will greatly reduce the 'magic' roll from knocking a good player out in a single elimination format and will discourage that type of build.

Smile


+1. Especially for a game as quick as this looks like it is that it's feasible. And it shouldn't be too difficult to incorporate tiebreaking rules in case you run out of time, with consideration taken for players who actively stall.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 9:09 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

FYI - for anyone who ever claims this game is simple with no decision points... Try to write an AI for it. It gets very complex very quickly.

Some things are simple, but others are deceptively complex.

or maybe I'm just suffering from aspartame poisoning and can't concentrait.

Even something like applying defenses is easy for a human, but fairly complex for a computer when you start dealing with dodges and deflects and pluses and how to optimally use them...
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2013 11:02 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just have it make assignments randomly and hope for the best. Very Happy
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:53 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dolus wrote:
Just have it make assignments randomly and hope for the best. Very Happy
Thats what I'm doing for now.

I want to post my results, but it just takes so much time to write them up. The summary is that some dice are definately support and can't stand by themselves.

My next test is to take the single strongest body part and see if it can be reliably beaten by a daemon made of two dice.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 12:45 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm curious about your results for stingers.

With a 13-stinger army, you'll have an average roll of 8.67 for initiative, which is the highest average you can have. So either they're going first, or their opponents are likely to be rolling very few dice on their first turn (since both faces that count for initiative are minuses).

On each turn, each die that gets rolled is either a minus or an attack. Since a successful stinger will stun one die, and stun/wound at least one more die before poison wears off, each non-blocked stinger (while the stinger will be lost), will take at least 2 dice with it.

The stinger has no way of recovering dice or blocking attacks, which is bad, but seems very powerful as an aggressive single-die strategy.


I feel like once you get an attack on such an army, you can take out their dice quickly and easily. But if you don't go first, or don't apply several minuses on their first turn, you will have a difficult time coming through. But looking into the racials for the breeds, this could change things. Since there is immunity to poison...
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